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基于环境驱动XGBoost的海上风电场水下噪声级预测方法

An Environment-Driven XGBoost-Based Prediction Method for Underwater Noise Levels in Offshore Wind Farms

  • 摘要: 为实现海上风电场运营期水下噪声空间分布的高精度预测,本研究提出一种基于环境变量驱动的ED-XGBoost机器学习模型。以福建省某海上风电场两台6 MW风机实测数据为基础,构建包含距离、方位角、深度、风速、风向、水温和声速剖面等特征的输入向量,采用十折交叉验证对比了线性回归(LR)、高斯过程回归(GPR)和ED-XGBoost三种模型的性能。结果表明,ED-XGBoost模型预测性能最优,均方根误差(RMSE)和平均绝对误差(MAE)分别为1.79 dB和1.45 dB,决定系数(R2)达0.97。通过进一步特征重要性分析发现,风速对噪声级的贡献最大,其次为深度和方位角,模型捕捉的非线性响应关系与声学传播物理机理一致。该方法无需复杂物理参数输入、计算效率高,且具有较强的物理可解释性,为风电场水下噪声快速预报和海洋生态环境影响评估提供了可靠工具。

     

    Abstract: To achieve high-accuracy prediction of the spatial distribution of underwater noise during the operational phase of offshore wind farms, this study proposes an environment-driven ED-XGBoost machine learning model. Based on field measurement data from two 6-MW turbines in an offshore wind farm located in Fujian Province, an input feature vector was constructed, comprising distance, bearing angle, depth, wind speed, wind direction, water temperature, and sound speed profile. The performance of linear regression (LR), Gaussian process regression (GPR), and XGBoost models was compared using 10-fold cross-validation. Results show that the ED-XGBoost model achieved the best performance, with a root mean square error (RMSE) of 1.79 dB, a mean absolute error (MAE) of 1.45 dB, and a coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.98. Further investigation reveals that wind speed contributes most to underwater noise levels, followed by depth and bearing angle; the captured nonlinear response relationships are consistent with the physical mechanisms of acoustic propagation. The proposed method requires no complex physical parameters, offers high computational efficiency and strong physical interpretability, and provides a reliable tool for rapid forecasting of underwater noise from offshore wind farms and for assessing their marine ecological impacts.

     

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